With the release of Michigan's census numbers last month, redistricting season is well underway. I previously proposed two congressional district maps, and Republican Michigander has offered his 10-4 plan as well.
While congressional lines attract the most attention, state legislative lines will also be redrawn. This article proposes two possible maps for the Michigan state senate. The state senate is particularly key since it has been the bulwark against total democrat control in Michigan since 1983.
Many of the rules for legislative district maps are the same as for congressional district maps. In particular, the Apol standards require that there be a small number of county and city/township breaks. These standards cannot legally bind future redistricting plans (LaRoux v. Secretary of State), but it is likely that any plan passed will at least come close to following them.
One major difference between the congressional and legislative standards is that populations for legislative districts are not required to be exact. They must be within 5% of the ideal population. For the Michigan Senate, the ideal population is 9983640/38=260095. The lower and upper thresholds are thus 247091 and 273100.
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This makes it much easier to avoid breaks. In particular, there are only six counties that must have breaks. They are Oakland, Macomb, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw, and Ingham. The second map below shows that it is possible to have a map with only six breaks.
The Voting Rights Act is commonly understood to require black-majority districts when possible. There are currently five black-majority districts based in Detroit. Given that Detroit lost 220000 people out of the 240000 loss in Wayne County, Wayne will lose a senate seat, dropping from 8 to 7. Detroit really should lose a black district, but don't expect Eric Holder to agree with that. It is possible to maintain five black districts with some creative line-drawing.
Redrawing the senate districts is a tricky problem. Small shifts in population can lead a district above or below the population thresholds. Because of the need to avoid breaks, this can require drastic changes in the districts. This is all too likely to lead to two incumbents ending up in the same district.
This is particularly true since Republicans now hold 26 of 38 senate seats. Only four of them are term-limited, so most will run for reelection. Some may have to move to avoid primary battles. This was not a problem when Republicans were redrawing districts in 2002, since almost all of the existing senators were term-limited.
First we review the existing senate districts. See a map of the districts below.
The ratings that I give are for open seat races in off-year elections. Incumbents are generally stronger than nominees for open seats. Off-year elections are better for Republicans than presidential year elections. Term-limited senators are denoted TL.
Safe D [eastern Detroit] Coleman Young
Safe D [northern Detroit, Grosse Pointes] Bert Johnson
Safe D [central Detroit, Dearborn] Morris Hood
Safe D [central Detroit] Virgil Smith
Safe D [western Detroit] Tupak Hunter (TL)
Lean D [Livonia, Westland, Redford] Glenn Andersen (TL)
Lean R [western, southern Wayne County] Patrick Colbeck
Safe D [downriver Detroit suburbs] Hoon-Yung Hopgood
Safe D [southern Macomb County] Steven Bieda
Tossup [central Macomb County] Tory Rocca
Safe R [northern Macomb County] Jack Brandenburg
Safe R [northeastern Oakland County] Jim Marleau
Lean R [Troy, Royal Oak, Bloomfield] John Pappageorge (TL)
Safe D [southeastern Oakland County] Vincent Gregory
Safe R [southwestern Oakland County] Mike Kowall
Safe R [Lenewaee, Hillsdale, Branch, St. Joseph Counties] Bruce Caswell
Lean R [Monroe, parts of Washtenaw and Jackson Counties] Randy Richardville (TL)
Safe D [Washtenaw County] Rebekah Warren
Tossup [Calhoun, Jackson Counties] Mike Nofs
Lean R [Kalamazoo County] Tonya Schuitmaker
Safe R [Berrien, Cass, VanBuren Counties] John Proos
Safe R [Livingston, Shiawassee Counties] Joe Hune
Safe D [Ingham County] Gretchen Whitmer (TL)
Safe R [Allegan, Barry, Eaton Counties] Rick Jones
Safe R [St. Clair, Lapeer Counties] Phil Pavlov
Tossup [eastern Genesee, northwest Oakland Counties] David Robertson
Safe D [Flint, western Genesee County] John Gleason (TL)
Safe R [Kent County outside Grand Rapids] Mark Jansen (TL)
Tossup [Grand Rapids, Kentwood] Dave Hildenbrand
Safe R [Ottawa County] Arlan Meekhof
Tossup [the Thumb] Mike Green
Tossup [Saginaw, Gratiot Counties] Roger Khan (TL)
Safe R [Clinton, Ionia, Montcalm, Isabella Counties] Judy Emmons
Lean R [Muskegon, Newaygo, Oceana, Mason Counties] Geoff Hansen
Safe R [north-central Lower Peninsula] Darwin Booher
Lean R [northeastern Lower Peninsula, Midland] John Moolenaar
Safe R [northern Lower Peninsula, eastern upper peninsula] Howard Walker
Tossup [Upper Peninsula excluding Mackinac, Chippewa] Tom Casperson
The ratings break down to 13/6/7/1/11 from R to D.
Here is Map A. It has seven county breaks, counting Genesee as broken twice. As mentioned above, Wayne loses a seat. It's a little tricky to designate the "new" seat, since every seat contains parts of existing seats, but I call it the VanBuren, Allegan, south Kent district. When possible, I tried to make Republican seats safer. However, a few actually got less safe due to population changes and county breaks. I denote a move one rating to the right by (+) and to the left by (-). The incumbent listed with a district is the one who represents the bulk of it, regardless whether he currently lives in the district.
Safe D [N Detroit, Grosse Pointes, Redford] Bert Johnson
Safe D [Detroit riverfront, Downriver] Coleman Young
Safe D [central Detroit, Lincoln Park, Southgate] (open?)
Safe D [West-central Detroit, Dearborn, Allen Park] Morris Hood
Safe D [W Detroit, Dearborn Heights, Taylor, Inkster] Tupak Hunter (TL)
Safe D(-) [SW Wayne, Westland] (open?)
Safe R(+) [Livonia, Canton, Plymouth, Northville] Patrick Colbeck
Safe R(++++) [VanBuren, Allegan, south Kent] (open)
Safe D [Warren, Roseville, S Clinton] Steven Bieda
Safe R(++) [Sterling Heights, Shelby, N Clinton] Tory Rocca
Safe R [N/E Macomb] Jack Brandenburg
Safe R [NE Oakland] Jim Marleau
Safe R(+) [Troy, Bloomfield, West Bloomfield, Commerce] John Pappageorge (TL)
Safe D [SE Oakland] Vincent Gregory
Safe R [SW Oakland] Mike Kowall
Safe R [Jackson, Hillsdale, Branch] Bruce Caswell
Tossup(-) [Monroe, Lenawee] Randy Richardville (TL)
Safe D [Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti] Rebekah Warren
Safe R(++) [Calhoun, Barry, Ionia] Mike Nofs
Tossup(-) [Kalamazoo County] Tonya Schuitmaker
Safe R [Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph] John Proos
Safe R [Livingston, W Washtenaw] Joe Hune
Safe D [Ingham] Gretchen Whitmer (TL)
Safe R [Eaton, Clinton, Shiawassee] Rick Jones
Safe R [St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron] Phil Pavlov
Safe R(++) [S Genesee, NW Oakland, Waterford] David Robertson
Safe D [Flint, central Genesee] John Gleason (TL)
Safe R [central Kent, Walker] Mark Jansen (TL)
Tossup [Grand Rapids, N Kent] Dave Hildenbrand
Safe R [Ottawa County] Arlan Meekhof
Lean R(+) [Bay, Tuscola, Lapeer] Mike Green
Lean D(-) [Saginaw, N/W Genesee] Roger Khan (TL)
Safe R [Montcalm, Isabella, Gratiot, Mecosta, Clare] Judy Emmons
Safe R(+) [northeastern Lower Peninsula, Midland] John Moolenaar
Safe R [N Lower Peninsula, E Upper Peninsula] Howard Walker
Tossup [Upper Peninsula excluding Mackinac, Chippewa, Luce] Tom Casperson
The breakdown for these districts is 20/1/5/1/11 from R to D. The map makes a lot of seats safer, but it almost surely sacrifices the Saginaw seat.
It would be possible to make some seats safer by adding more breaks. Specifically:
Splitting Grand Rapids between the two Kent seats
Trading Muskegon for E Ottawa
Trading N Kalamazoo (K Twp, Oshtemo, Comstock) for VanBuren
Map B has only six county breaks. It saves the Saginaw seat at the cost of dismantling Mike Green's district. It changes about half the districts. The changes are
Safe R [N Oakland, Pontiac] Jim Marleau
Safe R(+) [Rochester, Troy, Royal Oak] John Pappageorge (TL)
Safe D [SE Oakland] Vincent Gregory
Safe R [Bloomfield, W Bloomfield, Waterford, White Lake] (open)
Safe D [Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti] Rebekah Warren
Safe R [Livingston, Shiawassee] Joe Hune
Safe D [Ingham] Gretchen Whitmer (TL)
Safe R [Eaton, Clinton, Gratiot, S Ingham] Rick Jones
Safe R(++) [S Genesee, Lapeer] David Robertson
Safe D [Flint, central Genesee] John Gleason (TL)
Safe R(++) [W Washtenaw, SW Oakland] Mike Kowall
Lean R(+) [Saginaw, Tuscola] Roger Khan/Mike Green
Safe R [Montcalm, Isabella, Clare, Osceola, Lake, Mason, Oceana] Judy Emmons
Lean R [Muskegon, Newaygo, Mecosta] Geoff Hansen
Safe R [central Lower Peninsula] (?)
Lean R [Bay, Midland, Gladwin, Arenac, Roscommon, Missaukee] John Moolenaar
Safe R [N Lower Peninsula, E Upper Peninsula] Howard Walker
The breakdown for these districts is 20/3/4/0/11 from R to D. The distribution is better, but many existing seats are carved up.
Which map do you prefer? Vote in the poll at right.
