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    Who are the NERD fund donors Mr Snyder?

    Raise the curtain.

    That's Unfortunate . . . Now We Play Hardball

    By Kevin Rex Heine, Section News
    Posted on Sun Jun 23, 2013 at 07:53:39 AM EST
    Tags: 2013-HB-4714, House Roll Call 241 (2013), 2013-HB-4111, House Roll Call 11 (2013), Michigan Banana Republican Party, heavy-handed bifarceisanship, poisoning the party brand, illusion of state control, nullification vs. enabling, legislative malfeasance, creeping progressivism, executive-grade arm-twisting, Supremacy Clause abuse, U. S. Constitution Amendment X, State Sovereignty, constitutionally-restrained government, Reagan's Eleventh Commandment, integrity argument, causa provocare, liberty-minded network, acta non verba, empowered grassroots operation, sending a message, naming names and identifying targets, politician paper training, corinthian scales vs. absolute standard, "Mastermind" vs. "Oracle", Rick Snyder, GoverNerd, #OneRoughTurd, Nerd King, Slick Rick, 30th Biennial Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference (all tags)

    I grew up as the second of six siblings.  My parents were absolute geniuses at molding natural sibling rivalry into six sets of well-honed competitive instincts.  We were taught that if someone's keeping score, then winning's important, and you either play to win (within the rules of the game) or don't bother playing; full-contact euchre is a regular event at family get-togethers.  We also were taught how to be both considerate winners and gracious losers, and that once the final score is on the board, you shake hands, go have a beer, and get over it.  My three now-adult children were taught the same concepts, as were most of my two-and-a-half-dozen-or-so nieces and nephews (including the in-laws).

    It would appear, however, that the GoverNerd never learned the same lessons.  If you can tolerate listening to all of the logical fallacies and factual misrepresentations, the money quotes start at about 5:01, 11:17, 21:47, 22:24, and 23:19.

    Keep in mind that the Governor's press conference was happening while Senators Bert Johnson (D, District 2: Highland Park), Vincent Gregory (D, District 14: Southfield), Mark Jansen (R, District 28: Cutlerville), Roger Kahn (R, District 32: Saginaw), Arlan Meekhof (R, District 30: West Olive), Rebekah Warren (D, District 18: Ann Arbor), Patrick Colbeck (R, District 7: Canton), Gretchen Whitmer (D, District 23: East Lansing), and Randy Richardville (R, District 17: Monroe) were commenting on the passage of Senate Concurrent Resolution 0009 (2013) along strict party lines without taking up House Bill 4714 (2013) for a floor vote (which bill was referred to the Committee on Government Operations just prior to adjourning until Wednesday, July 3rd, 2013 at 10:00 a.m.).  With the exception of Jansen and Meekhof, the comments are preserved on the record in 2013 Senate Journal Number 60.

    The Nerd King's churlish behavior, resembling an unruly two-year-old who pitches a hissy fit because his parents won't let him have his way, conveniently ignores the truth that the nine-week summer recess is intended to be an in-district work session, not a two-month vacation.  By the way, thanks, rick-head, for giving the Senate Minority Leader a tagline that MDP Chairman Lon Johnson will convert into a commercial that'll be running in every Michigan media market this summer right alongside the "Pure Michigan" pabulum.  A cursory Google search of "take a vote, not a vacation" readily shows that the statewide drive-by media and lefty blogs have already started propagating the meme.

    Senator Richardville, to his credit, adhered to the "Majority Of The Majority" Doctrine, as he said he'd do, and refused to push a vote on the bill without at least 13 members of his caucus onboard with a "yea" vote.  Contrary to Senator Whitmer's assertion that this is an unwritten rule, the doctrine was originally articulated and codified by Dennis Hastert (R-IL-14, 59th Speaker of the House, and the source of the popular nickname "Hastert Rule"), but was in practice in the U. S. House at least as far back as Tom Foley (D-WA-05, 57th Speaker Of The House).  Violating that rule?  In Speaker Hastert's own words: "Maybe you can do it once, maybe you can do it twice, but when you start making deals when you have to get [the opposition party] to pass the legislation, you are not in power anymore."  And that means that we might want to start researching how many times Speaker Bolger has violated this rule (besides 2013-HRC-11 and 2013-HRC-241); maybe a lower house "no confidence vote" is in order.

    The only way to override this rule (without the chair's cooperation) is to have a majority of the chamber's voting membership (20 senators, in this case) sign off on a discharge petition in order to force a floor vote.  Get 20 senators, regardless of party banner, to sign off on such an instrument, and Richardville can override the fact that both the Senate Majority Floor Leader (Arlan Meekhof) and the Assistant Majority Floor Leader (Phil Pavlov - R, District 25: St. Clair) are aligned with the opposition camp.  I mean, if the 50 professional insurance industry lobbyists were correct in claiming that at least 9 republican senators were onboard, this should have been a given, right?

    However, a little bit of "track eight analysis" shows that the matter may not have been as simple as that.

    Recall that back on Thursday I described briefly the basic logic of Whip Count Math.  No one who actually understands how whip counting works would dare suffer a question to be called for vote without knowing, in advance, within ±5%, how the final tally is expected to come down.  A logical corollary of this principle is that, in a close vote, the caucus leader wants to have enough insurance votes, equal to 5% of the chamber's voting membership, to cover his ass if someone goes wobbly on the roll call.  I also calculated that margin of error to be 38 × 0.05 = 1.9 ≈ 2 senators in addition to the 20 needed for majority.

    In other words, if Richardville were inclined to make the importance of this bill a suitable excuse to violate the Hastert Rule, and assuming that he's got the entire 12-member democrat caucus onboard, he'd have to know that he's probably got 9 republican senators willing to vote "yea," and certain that he can rely on at least 7 of them, not including Calley as the tiebreaker.  We knew going into Thursday morning that five republicans (Hansen, Kahn, Kowall, Marleau, and Richardville) would vote in support if the question were put.  In order to arrive at his necessary nine, Richardville needed to get at least two of the four known fence-sitters (Casperson, Emmons, Hildenbrand, and Jansen) to sign on to a discharge petition that would allow Tupac Hunter (D, District 5: Detroit - Minority Floor Leader) or Hoon-Young Hopgood (D, District 8: Taylor - Assistant Minority Floor Leader) to override Meekhof and force a floor vote.  Richardville didn't have the votes.

    The flip side of that coin is that Tonya Schuitmaker (R, District 20: Lawton), Senate President Pro-Tempore and nominal leader of the opposition bloc, with 17 senators committed to voting "nay," also needed all four of the fence-sitters (assuming that she had at least one of the rumored three democrat defectors) before she could dare push forward a floor vote to kill the bill.  Schuitmaker didn't have the votes either.

    Both Richardville and Jansen got it right:  The State Senate is intended to be a deliberative body, to think a matter all the way through and consider the foreseeable outcomes.  The House had had the bill for at least five weeks, the Senate for maybe seven days.  Quoting Richardville:  "I think it's not really a responsible thing to say 'take a vote, not a vacation,' when we are a deliberative body and are going to take a hard look at something.  We've got plans to go look at some things that we think are important in the legislative schedule."

    Damn straight.  I recommend taking a hard look at Senate Bill 0422 (2013), which will get the federal fingerprint out of the state Medicaid system altogether, and set it up as a state-funded, state-operated trust fund, therefore protected by 10th Amendment State Sovereignty against federal meddling.

    Oh, and a sidebar for any of the lefty lurkers on this site (yes, Eric Baaren and Christine Barry, I'm referring specifically to the two of you) who may attempt to counter with how quickly the Workplace Fairness and Equity Act was passed, I'll point out that Public Act 348 of 2012 was originally Senate Bill 0116 (2011), which was introduced on February 9, 2011, and then sat in the Senate Economic Development Committee for damn near two full years before being brought out to the floor for an up-or-down vote.  That's plenty of time for debate, consideration, and amendment.  That the House concurred without amendment five days later reflects the reality that the lower chamber is designed to represent the popular will; and Proposal 12-2 going down 57.40% to 42.60%, along with Proposal 12-4 going down 56.23% to 43.77%, was considered as popular will wanting Freedom To Work passed as the law of the state.

    Way back in March of 2009, as the tea party movement in Michigan was still in its embryonic stages, Nick DeLeeuw warned us about an unknown moderate who was seeking the Governor's Mansion under the Republican banner, apparently for no other reason than to scratch a "to do" item off of his bucket list.  However, with three more conservative candidates splitting the bold colors vote (three points separated the frontrunner, Hoekstra, from Cox and Snyder going into the final weekend, with 18% undecided) and Rick Michigan openly courting democrat crossover votes, we wound up with a nominee who didn't win a majority on primary night (381,327 ÷ 1,044,925 ≈ 36.49%) and whom ~63.51% of the republican primary voters didn't want.

    This historical fact alone ought to make the case for statutorily mandating some sort of run-off option to a primary in which no candidate wins a clear majority.  It's also "Exhibit A" for why, if we're going to advance a primary challenger next year, then it ought to be exactly one known conservative.  I'll get back to that.

    Back in December of 2008, I quoted an address by Ambassador Peter F. Secchia to the Kent County Republicans.  Because it's so relevant, I'm going to requote it here:

    Ambassador Secchia also said that, in his judgment, if you have elected officials who demand leadership, then they should win that leadership from their peers, in their caucus, from the people wearing the same party uniform and sharing the same "locker room."  Siding with your opponents is not, as the Grand Rapids Press stated, "reaching out," it is changing your uniform in the middle of the game.  Once you do that, no private political strategy is unshared, and no appointments are fairly represented.  It is "pretend" leadership without a team uniform . . . leadership that will never be able to decide who owes what to whom.


    I won't go into all of the details in this article, but the regulars of this site are generally aware that Governor Rick Snyder has established a pattern of being more interested in accomplishing an agenda uniquely his own, that does not necessarily have the best interests of either the state's residents or its infrastructure in mind, and that poisons the party brand in the process.  The tea-party driven red tsunami that swept the Republican Party back into power in Michigan in 2010 cares about two priorities above all others: state sovereignty and constitutionally-restrained government.  Though he's made it pretty clear recently that he doesn't overmuch care what the tea party thinks of him, to quote Joanie Fabiano, "Next time someone says the Tea Party is insignificant, tell them to ask Israel."

    ObamaCare, by its very nature, runs diametrically and diabolically counter to the two chief priorities of the liberty-minded network.  Bill Schuette, our Attorney General, gets that, which is why he's been on the front lines against this juggernaut, whilst Snyder is quite content to let the beast in through the back door.  Not only did the GoverNerd invite the one-woman death panel into the state to assist in the snake oil sales pitch, but when he didn't get his way last Thursday, he effectively sicced the state's moocher-and-looter class on 21 state senators who did their damn jobs.  And in doing this, the Nerd King is ticking off the republican base, and either doesn't realize it, or honestly believes that it doesn't matter.

    Governor Snyder, while eligible for re-election, hasn't yet publicly declared whether he'll do so.  I suspect, as I've said before, that he's waiting for the Biennial Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference (September 20 - 22, 2013) to make it official, and in the meantime is deliberately dragging his feet on the gamble that he can coax potential challengers to reveal themselves out of impatience.  Given that his best poll performance in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup with Mark Schauer was reported as dead even, he's got to know that he's vulnerable to a credible primary ouster, even though he's apparently oblivious to the reality that his behavior is poisoning the party brand.

    And I'm fine with that, because there's now credible backchannel scuttlebutt that a viable primary challenger has already been recruited.  Said challenger has pre-existing statewide name recognition, can independently fund a primary campaign, and has sufficient grassroots cred within the infamously fractious liberty-minded network that the Nerd King's primary ouster just became an open question.  The name however, is being kept under the tightest of wraps for the time being, because Snyder is clearly not accustomed to losing, and is known to readily adopt a "by whatever means necessary" approach toward getting things done (including keeping his office, if that's important to him).  The challenger would be a fool to surface one minute before he has to.

    All I'm saying is that the countdown clock up in the upper left corner, and the unscientific poll over there in the right sidebar, aren't there for show.  The poison in the party brand needs to be neutralized and removed.

    < AUL Fight Continues with 14th Brief | Big Macs And Tatooed Baloney >

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    For the time being... (none / 0) (#1)
    by KG One on Sun Jun 23, 2013 at 08:48:53 AM EST
    ...I'll keep my mouth shut on those last two paragraphs.

    The trolls from those "other" sites can speculate to their hearts content until the fall.

    In a way, it's kind of sad that it has come down to this.

    It's sad that a person who prides himself of being data-driven, flat-out ignores the data right in front of his face about the economic viability of the program that he vigorously promotes as being some kind of benefit to Michigan.

    That isn't an indication of someone who looks at facts. That is an indication of someone who leads by emotion.

    As I've mentioned before, I've got front-row seats for what happens when you let feel-good emotions override common sense decision making.

    It isn't going to be pretty when the end-result of that leadership style that finally happens.

    But it will be a cold day in Hell if nothing is done to warn others about what will happen to Michigan if this is left to go unchecked.

    As I watch that video (none / 0) (#2)
    by JGillman on Sun Jun 23, 2013 at 09:36:42 AM EST
    I can see nothing that is so different from the emotional drivel that is used to drive policy for the moochers and looters.

    I really hate to use that term too.  However, when Snyder refers to all those poor people sitting in the emergency rooms as being "working adults", it is as if to score the sympathies, and then permission to steal from others to provide their health care.  

    The so-called 'progressives' use that emotional crap to forward THEIR agenda.  Its called socialism, and is theft.  

    Any health professionals who sign on to those arguments need to ask why they bothered to get into the field in the first place.  If they feel it is the responsibility for society to take care of those who are the working poor, then they can observe their own social construct by providing all of that care for free.  They do not need anyone else, nor a hand in my pocket to help them do that.

    This emotional tripe is indeed poison for the party, and any Republican who gets tangled up in it is a liar for violating their vow to defend the constitution, hypocritical for being in a party that has a platform opposing it, and a fool for allowing this governor to sway them with such emotional tripe.

    Nose Counts (none / 0) (#3)
    by TiredIronTim on Sun Jun 23, 2013 at 09:55:04 AM EST
    Based on my intel coming from the senate floor- which proved to be accurate and incredibly useful last week on all occasions, the final count was 20 confirmed no votes.

    And in regards to Snyder, I successfully engaged one of his insiders last week so that I could confirm my suspicions- or reorganize them.

    Unfortunately, IMO, Nerdly will continue his course of death and destruction through the party-  not caring for a minute about the ramifications and/or damage done to the party that he had little use for prior to throwing his hat in the ring originally.

    He reportedly refuses to mix politics with doing his job, and will do whatever he thinks is the right thing to do- regardless of whether or not it blows a hole through the keel of the Snyder 2014 ship. Chances are very good that while in the shower, he's loudly belting out Frank Sinatra's "I did it my way", and is unabashedly willing to sing it all the way into early retirement.

    • Well, ... by Corinthian Scales, 06/23/2013 11:27:38 AM EST (5.00 / 1)
    • Two thoughts . . . by Kevin Rex Heine, 06/23/2013 01:39:20 PM EST (5.00 / 1)
    Yet another . . . (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by Kevin Rex Heine on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 10:57:43 AM EST
    . . . turd in the party punch bowl.

    Snyder's office on Monday announced "A Conversation With the Governor," a series of informal discussions with various audiences across the state. The first-term Republican is expected to begin the series Tuesday in Grand Rapids, where he will discuss the "Healthy Michigan" initiative with Spectrum Health System employees and other stakeholders.

    "The Healthy Michigan plan is vital to the health of our families and the economic success of our state. Unfortunately, Michigan now faces a sense of urgency to approve the plan in the light of the Senate's failure to vote before taking a summer vacation," Snyder said in a release announcing the talks.

    But Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville declined to call an up-or-down vote in that chamber before lawmakers left town for summer break on Thursday, casting serious doubts about the fate of the expansion proposal. Richardville said caucus members need more time to consider the plan, noting that a House committee debated it for several weeks. He does not expect to convene another formal Senate session until late August.

    Snyder, in an uncharacteristically charged Thursday afternoon press conference, called on Senate Republicans to "take a vote, not a vacation" and urged residents to "bug the living daylights" out of them. Waiting until the fall to consider the Medicaid expansion proposal would be unacceptable, he said, because of federal timelines for rollout.

    This smacks of his campaign bus tour from last fall, which was for the specific purpose of defeating Proposals 12-5 and 12-6, though he was billing it as "one is yes, no on the rest" and couldn't even get 12-1 passed when the official canvass was done.

    I don't think there's enough Syrup of Ipecac in this state to neutralize the poison that the Nerd King has introduced into the party brand.

    86-3/4 days . . . and counting.

    A new online poll . . . (none / 0) (#9)
    by Kevin Rex Heine on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 12:26:23 PM EST
    . . . is now available regarding a potential primary challenger to Governor Snyder.  This poll builds on an older one that's been circulating since June 16th, but is a bit more soundly structured from a statistical standpoint.  (http://poll.pollcode.com/9x5ry)  You may vote only once per year, so please choose wisely before pressing the "vote" button.  Just so we're clear, the sidebar poll has been in circulation on FaceBook since June 16th, and as of about a half hour ago has a total of 124 votes (after removing known duplications).  The tally, before the new poll started circulating, was:

    • (46 ÷ 124 ≈ 37.10%) - Dave Agema
    • (1 ÷ 124 ≈ 0.81%) - Saul Anuzis
    • (16 ÷ 124 ≈ 12.90%) - Mike Bishop
    • (6 ÷ 124 ≈ 4.84%) - Todd Courser
    • (3 ÷ 124 ≈ 2.42%) - Mike Cox
    • (9 ÷ 124 ≈ 7.26%) - Clark Durant
    • (3 ÷ 124 ≈ 2.42%) - Jason Gillman
    • (26 ÷ 124 ≈ 20.97%) - Gary Glenn
    • (4 ÷ 124 ≈ 3.23%) - Pete Hoekstra
    • (10 ÷ 124 ≈ 8.06%) - Bill Schuette

    It was, admittedly, a blunderbuss approach.  But the results are telling to a degree.

    Fascinating . . . (none / 0) (#34)
    by Kevin Rex Heine on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 02:54:56 PM EST
    . . . this is.  As of last night, I was noticing that the only reliable things about this poll (http://poll.pollcode.com/9x5ry) were that:

    • the "inappropriate" line, though the largest plurality, was still a minority opinion (39% as of just before I'd called it a night)

    • an overwhelming majority (58% as of just before I'd called it a night) wanted a primary challenge, but there was nothing even remotely resembling consensus as to whom that challenger ought to be

    But my, how a mere 14 hours can change things.

    79-1/2 days, or thereabouts, and counting.

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    Whom do you think should be the primary challenger to Governor Snyder?
    + Dave Agema 19%
    + Saul Anuzis 0%
    + Mike Bishop 15%
    + Todd Courser 4%
    + Mike Cox 8%
    + Clark Durant 2%
    + Jason Gillman 2%
    + Gary Glenn 32%
    + Pete Hoekstra 2%
    + Bill Schuette 13%

    Votes: 46
    Results | Other Polls
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